The month started with a bearish mood, with prices dominated by mild weather and a repeated lowering of domestic demand forecasts combined with a very healthy supply from LNG sendout and pipeline imports. With increased Langeled and BBL from the end of October there was a need for injections into medium range storage. Higher winds as the month progressed further reduced gas demand for gas-fired power generation added more weight to the prompt contracts.
Relief from the bearish pressure came with an increased domestic demand and a range of unplanned outages in both the UKCS and the NCS. BBL offered some degree of stability to supply as it began to flow more regularly and with larger volumes. The IUK line also reacted to the tightened market by reducing continental export. Once maintenance concluded on the UKCS, flows recovered substantially and allowed enough gas into the UK system for injections into storage in preparation for the colder months ahead. Volatility in the oil market was caused in the middle of the month with a string of terrorist attacks in Paris. Prices went up briefly as sellers factored in a higher risk premium, but this soon eroded away with the continued global oil glut.
The late month saw an increase in consumption, mostly from the domestic sector. The price rise was subdued somewhat by LDZ forecasts for the remainder of November being relatively sluggish. However, as December drew ever closer with few confirmed LNG tankers we saw a rise in prices. Oil prices however saw some turbulence with geopolitical tensions escalating on two fronts. Russian-Ukrainian relations degraded as saboteurs damaged power lines to the Crimean Peninsula and Russia reacted by threatening to cut gas supplied to the Ukraine. Further tensions came to fruition between Russia and Turkey as airspace violations resulted in Turkish forces downing a Russian warplane. In the final days of the month, oil prices lost their volatility as traders were reluctant to purchase and instead chose to wait for the outcome of the OPEC policy meeting in early December.